IPCC_Predicts

A Sustainable Oregon	Is Accomplished by
Equal opportunity for all Oregonians	Putting average citizens first in all government actions
Maximize Oregonian's standard of living	Government encourages, rather than inhibits competition
Maximum access to plentiful jobs	Government that welcomes all non polluting industries
Fast and low cost transportation that is self financing	Ending government discrimination against cars.
Maximum opportunity for jobs creation	Limit regulations to those for safety and fraud prevention
Government based on sound principles and science	Outreach to ordinary people not special interests

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How accurate are IPCC Predictions?

Another View

From http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c017ee50f906b970d-pi

NASA (Jim Hansen)

From: http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c017ee50f8f6c970d-pi

IPCC AR5 draft Fig 1.4

Colored bands are the predictions made in FAR, SAR, TAR & AR4.

Notice that AR4 was published in 2007, but the prediction starts in 1988. Much of the graph is actually “hindcast” - tuning the model to match actual history, NOT really a prediction. We have removed these “hindcasts” from the chart at the right.

Modified IPCC AR5 draft Fig 1.4

“Hindsight” predictions removed - each prediction starts at the actual publication date.

Notice that:

The actual temperatures are generally at the bottom of the prediction range.
Temperature has NOT increased since 1997 as shown by the red line we added - it is within the error bands of the last 11 years and, except for two years, the last 15 years.
Temperature has been essentially flat since 2001
Two of the four (50%) of the actual temperatures since AR4 came out are outside of the rather wide prediction bands.

Here is an actual IPCC graph of their own accuracy

Added straight line