No Proof

A Sustainable Oregon	Is Accomplished by
Equal opportunity for all Oregonians	Putting average citizens first in all government actions
Maximize Oregonian's standard of living	Government encourages, rather than inhibits competition
Maximum access to plentiful jobs	Government that welcomes all non polluting industries
Fast and low cost transportation that is self financing	Ending government discrimination against cars.
Maximum opportunity for jobs creation	Limit regulations to those for safety and fraud prevention
Government based on sound principles and science	Outreach to ordinary people not special interests

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New York Times Dec 7, 1905

New York Times May 15, 1932

What Is Good Quality Proof?

Here is the Minimum Standard of Proof Required Before Taking Climate Action

Prove that observed temperature increases are real.
Prove that temperature increases are unusual in a historical context.
Prove that CO2 actually can cause warming
Prove the relationship between any given CO2 increase and temperature
Prove what a dangerous amount of global warming actually is.
Prove that man's CO2 is responsible for the observed increase in atmospheric CO2.

Absent proof that man is the cause of warming, no cessation of man's activities will change the weather and will have no effect on cuddly polar bears, glaciers, ice caps or ocean levels.

What about The Sun?

It has been known for over 200 years that there is a relationship between the price of wheat and sunspots. William Hershel reported that finding to the Royal Society in 1801. (Herschel, W., 1801, Philosophical Transactions, 91, 265.)

The Sun is a much better short term fit to climate than CO2.

It has recently been shown that there is a good correlation between solar cycle length and climate, as this chart shows.

Notice the dip in both solar and temperature from about 1940-1965. There is no such dip in graphs of CO2.

Graph adapted by Dr. Tim Patterson.from: Friis-Christensen, E., and K. Lassen, Science, 254, 698-700, 1991

The Sun is a much better long term fit to climate than CO2

Here is a long term chart of solar cycle length and temperature as implied by an isotope of Oxygen. Historic CO2 levels do not show any of these ups and downs. Again the sun is a better fit than CO2.

Graph from: Long-term Variations in Solar Activity and their Apparent Effect on the Earth's Climate K.Lassen, Danish Meteorological Institute, Solar-Terrestrial Physics Division, Lyngbyvej,100, DK-2100 Copenhagen (2), Denmark.
http://www.tmgnow.com/repository/solar/lassen1.html

First, A Brief History of Climate Change

New York Times Feb 24, 1895

Things Look Different When You See the Whole History

600 year history -- Today is actually cooler than medieval times

Source: Energy & Environment · Vol. 14, No. 6, 2003, pg 77

The majority of the glacier melting

occurred during the 1930s

Sea Levels have been rising for thousands of years. Lately the rise has slowed down.

Slower Rise

Late Carboniferous to Early Permian time (315 mya -- 270 mya) is the only time period in the last 600 million years when both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as they are today (Quaternary Period ).

Temperature after C.R. Scotese http://www.scotese.com/climate.htm

CO2 after R.A. Berner, 2001 (GEOCARB III)

Today is unusually COOL with unusually low CO2

http://www.icecap.us/

http://surfacestations.org/

http://www.co2science.org/

http://www.junkscience.com/

http://www.climateaudit.org/

www.FriendsOfScience.org

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/

http://www.climate-skeptic.com/

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/

Additional Information

PDF of this Page

Friis-Christensen, E., and K. Lassen, Length of the solar cycle: An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate, Science, 254, 698-700, 1991).

Proc. R. Soc. A doi:10.1098/rspa.2006.1773

Henrik Svensmark, Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges - A&G • February 2007 • Vol. 48

NAS report: www.nap.edu/catalog/11676.html

Wegman factsheet: http://republicans.energycommerce.house.gov/108/home/07142006_Wegman_fact_sheet.pdf

Wegman Report: http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/WegmanReport.pdf

References

A note:

Coal is carbon taken out of the atmosphere by plants that ended up buried. Two conclusions come from this:

1. The earlier atmosphere had much more CO2 than now (and the earth did not turn into a burnt cinder.)

2. Returning that carbon to the atmosphere will, at most, merely return to the conditions of an earlier atmosphere. At the least, it will do nothing because of the earth’s natural negative feedback mechanisms.

New York Times Feb 20, 1969

Washington Post July 9, 1971

Newsweek, April 28, 1975 - The Cooling World

Notice the Dramatic

Graph of COOLING

Just like You See

For WARMING Today.

New York Times May 21, 1975

Some Climate Facts

FACT: FIRST the temperature goes up, THEN CO2 goes up.

At least three careful ice core studies have shown that CO2 starts to rise about 800 years (600-1000 years) after Antarctic temperature during glacial terminations. These terminations are pronounced warming periods that mark the ends of the ice ages that happen every 100,000 years or so.
... All that the lag shows is that CO2 did not cause the first 800 years of warming, out of the 5000 year trend. The other 4200 years of warming could in fact have been caused by CO2, as far as we can tell from this ice core data. (From: realclimate.org/index.php?p=13) (Notice “could in fact have been”? That means that they don’t really know.)

The Famous Temperature Chart that Al Gore used is simply wrong.

Here is what Dr. Wegman, past president of the statistics division of the National Academy of Sciences says about the temperature chart the AL Gore uses. (MBH98 and MBH99 are the scientific papers that created Al Gore’s chart; MM03/05a/05b are the scientific papers that pointed out the errors in MBH98 and MBH99):
In general, we found MBH98 and MBH99 to be somewhat obscure and incomplete ... Normally, one would try to select a calibration dataset that is representative of the entire dataset. The 1902-1995 data is not fully appropriate for calibration and leads to a misuse in principal component analysis. (From: 07142006_Wegman_Report.pdf, page 4 Alternative source)
The criticism in MM03/05a/05b pointed out a number of flaws such as:

·	You can take red noise and put it into the algorithm used in MBH98 and get the famous hockey stick.

·	You can remove the bristle cone pines from the data set and the hockey stick disappears.

·	If you use the correct data centering methodology, the hockey stick disappears.

The whole field of climate prediction is fatally flawed because
most of the field uses the same data and methods - they are not independent.

Wegman: page 4: Our findings from this analysis suggest that authors in the area of paleoclimate studies are closely connected and thus “independent studies” may not be as independent as they might appear on the surface. (From: 07142006_Wegman_Report.pdf, page 4 Alternative source)

FACT: Water vapor is the major greenhouse gas, NOT CO2.

. . . the maximum supportable number for the importance of water vapour alone is about 60-70% and for water plus clouds 80-90% of the present day greenhouse effect. (Of course, using the same approach, the maximum supportable number for CO2 is 20-30%, (From: realclimate.org/index.php?p=142) (This web site run warming advocate)

A complete list of things caused by global warming

Acne, agricultural land increase, Afghan poppies destroyed, Africa devastated, Africa in conflict, African aid threatened, African summer frost, aggressive weeds, air pressure changes, airport malaria, Agulhas current, Alaska reshaped, moves, allergy season longer, alligators in the Thames, Alps melting, Amazon a desert, American dream end, amphibians breeding earlier (or not), anaphylactic reactions to bee stings, ancient forests dramatically changed, animals head for the hills, animals shrink, Antarctic grass flourishes, Antarctic ice grows, Antarctic ice shrinks, Antarctic sea life at risk, anxiety treatment, algal blooms, archaeological sites threatened, Arctic bogs melt, Arctic in bloom, Arctic ice free, Arctic ice melt faster, Arctic lakes disappear, Arctic tundra to burn, Arctic warming (not), Atlantic less salty, Atlantic more salty, atmospheric circulation modified, attack of the killer jellyfish, avalanches reduced, avalanches increased, Baghdad snow, Bahrain under water, bananas grow, barbarisation, beer shortage, beetle infestation, bet for $10,000

Click on the above to see the complete list (http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm)

Alarmists like to talk about an ice free Arctic and of ships sailing through the Northwest Passage.

Here is some history:

Amundson Navigated the Northwest Passage in the early 1900s:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roald_Amundsen#Northwest_Passage

Royal Navy Navigated the Northwest passage During World War II:

http://www.ucalgary.ca/arcticexpedition/larsenexpeditions

Sailing the Northwest Passage