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Solar Cycles Provide An Excellent Fit To Clouds

Solar Cycles Provide An Excellent Fit To Climate

The Sun is a much better short term fit to climate than CO2.

The Sun is a much better long term fit to climate than CO2

There is a close relationship between the number of sunspots and cosmic rays.

Notice that the peaks of the lower (blue) line match up with the valleys of the upper (orange) chart.

There is a close relationship between cosmic rays and cloud cover

Higher cosmic rays, more clouds. (Red arrow from cloud cover peak to cosmic ray peak)

Lower cosmic rays, fewer clouds. (red arrow from  cloud cover dip to cosmic ray bottom.)

“anthropogenic sources alone contributed to a warming of 0.14 +/- .36°C since the beginning of the 20th century.”

“Increased solar activity is responsible for a total increase of 0.47 +/- .19°C”

Total: 0.61 +/- 0.42°C  (compare with IPCC 0.57 +/- 0.17°C)

Shaviv, N. J., 2005. On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget. J. Geophys. Rsch., VOL. 110, A08105, doi:10.1029/2004JA010866, 2005

¾ of warming due to solar activity:  Nir J. Shaviv

CO2science has a lengthy list of quality articles about the solar connection at

http://www.co2science.org/subject/s/summaries/solarirradiance.php

The Resilient Earth:  Climate Controlling Ocean Thermostat Discovered

A report in the December 3, 2010, issue of Science has reinforced what many scientists have suspected all along: variation in the Sun's output causes significant change in Earth's climate. Writing in “Dynamical Response of the Tropical Pacific Ocean to Solar Forcing During the Early Holocene,” Thomas M. Marchitto, Raimund Muscheler, Joseph D. Ortiz, Jose D. Carriquiry and Alexander van Geen present a high-resolution magnesium/calcium proxy record of Holocene sea surface temperature (SST) from off the west coast of Baja California Sur, Mexico. Their work is in agreement with the theoretical “ocean dynamical thermostat” response of ENSO to radiative forcing. Here is their description of the work:

   The influence of solar variability on Earth’s climate over centennial to millennial time scales is the subject of considerable debate. The change in total solar irradiance over recent 11-year sunspot cycles amounts to <0.1%, but greater changes at ultraviolet wavelengths may have substantial impacts on stratospheric ozone concentrations, thereby altering both stratospheric and tropospheric circulation patterns. Estimates of the secular increase in total irradiance since the late 17th century Maunder sunspot minimum range from ~0.05 to 0.5%. Values in the middle of this range are sufficient to force the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics into a more El Niño–like state during the Little Ice Age (A.D. ~1400 to 1850), a response dubbed the “ocean dynamical thermostat” because negative (or positive) radiative forcing results in dynamical ocean warming (or cooling, respectively) of the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP). This model prediction is supported by paleoclimatic proxy reconstructions over the past millennium. In contrast, fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs) lack a robust thermostat response because of an opposing tendency for the atmospheric circulation itself to strengthen under reduced radiative forcing.

A number of things stand out here. First, irradiance changes that have been dismissed by some in the CO2 fan club were shown to be sufficient to drive changes in the ENSO. Much like the atmospheric solar heat amplifier found previously, seemingly minor changes in solar output can cause big changes here on Earth. Because the Pacific region is so large, any thing that affects the ENSO also affects climate world wide.